An expected move is how far, up or down, the options market is pricing a stock to move by a given expiration. For earnings, it's the mid price of the at-the-money straddle (call plus put) in the first expiration after the report, divided by the stock price for the percent.
For example, AAPL reports on Monday, November 2, 2026. With the stock at $343.80, the $345.00 call and put expiring Wednesday, November 4, 2026 cost $16.73 together at mid, so the expected move is ±$16.73, or ±4.87% (2026-10-21 snapshot).
How to read it
The expected move gives an implied range: stock price minus the move to stock price plus the move. It includes some time value beyond earnings day, so a straddle that expires several days after the report slightly overstates the pure earnings move. Wide or one-sided quotes on thinly traded options make the number less reliable, which is why EarningsMoves labels quote quality on every row.
Expected vs actual
After each report, EarningsMoves records the close-to-close move and whether it was bigger than the expected move. Over time that shows how often a stock moves more than the options market priced. Tracking began Wednesday, October 21, 2026. See the methodology or go to the earnings calendar.
FAQ
What is an expected move?
An expected move is the size of stock move, up or down, that options prices imply by a given expiration. For earnings, it's usually estimated from the price of the at-the-money straddle (one call plus one put at the strike nearest the stock price) in the first expiration after the report.
How do you calculate the expected move for earnings?
Add the mid prices of the at-the-money call and put in the first expiration that includes the post-earnings session. That sum is the expected move in dollars; divide by the stock price for the percentage. For example, AAPL reports on Monday, November 2, 2026. With the stock at $343.80, the $345.00 call and put expiring Wednesday, November 4, 2026 cost $16.73 together at mid, so the expected move is ±$16.73, or ±4.87% (2026-10-21 snapshot).
Is the expected move a prediction?
No. It's what options are pricing at that moment, not a forecast. Stocks often move less than the expected move and sometimes much more.
Why do some traders multiply the straddle by 0.85?
Some traders use about 85% of the straddle as a rough one-standard-deviation estimate. EarningsMoves shows the full straddle mid and tells you exactly which strike and expiration were used, so you can adjust it yourself.
Where can I see expected moves for upcoming earnings?
EarningsMoves lists the expected move for 1,697 optionable U.S. stocks reporting in the next two weeks, free, updated every trading day, with a page for each ticker.